How Nuno's Nott'm Forest have become more difficult to beat

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 8.

Team analysis - Nottingham Forest 

From a tactical perspective, Nottingham Forest are maturing nicely, and it has made them incredibly hard to break down in the early weeks of the 2024/25 campaign.

They boast the joint second-best defensive record, only conceding six goals. That is the same tally as Arsenal, and only leaders Liverpool have allowed fewer, with two.

Forest have only shipped multiple goals in only one of their opening seven Premier League matches - their 2-2 draw at Brighton & Hove Albion in Matchweek 5.

The fact that Forest drew away to both Brighton and Chelsea, despite finishing each game with 10 men, shows their resilience, while their standout result so far was that stunning 1-0 win at Liverpool.

Straightforward improvements

Forest's fine start is not down to a tactical revolution; the team have simply got better at performing the instructions of head coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Stability has helped them.

Goalkeeper Matz Sels, full-back Ola Aina and centre-backs Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic have all started the last six matches together, with left-back Alex Moreno joining them for the last four.

That unit is settled now, which is a far cry from last season, when 13 different defenders and three 'keepers all made at least five top-flight starts.

Forest remain, in essence, a team who sit behind the ball – averaging just shy of 40 per cent possession – before launching quickly constructed counter-attacks.

The data tells us that despite having slightly less of the ball this season, their speed and efficiency on the break has improved in all departments.

Forest's attacking stats per 90

A key part of their development is that they do not rely on Morgan Gibbs-White quite as much this season.

Their outstanding No 10 remains a prominent figure of course, but Forest know they can also rely on wide men Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga for just as much creativity.

Opponents now have multiple danger men to contain.

Decreased reliance on Gibbs-White’s creativity

Forest’s best moment from a counter-attack came at Anfield, and it helped them earn a famous success against leaders Liverpool.

Elanga’s surging run and pass helped pave the way for Hudson-Odoi to strike the winner.

This type of breakaway is their forte under Nuno.

Forest's counter-attacking goal v Liverpool

Watch Hudson-Odoi's goal

Milenkovic helps solve set-piece woes

Last season, Forest’s defending from set-plays was nothing short of shambolic, conceding 22 goals from dead-ball situations, more than any other side. 

They lacked leadership and authority when dealing with crosses delivered into the penalty area, but that issue now appears to have been fixed. The arrival of 6ft 5in defender Milenkovic has made a colossal difference.

The 26-year-old Serbia international is aggressive, dominant and aerially strong, and his aura has helped to calm his team-mates.

After seven rounds of matches, Forest have conceded just one set-piece goal, and their Expected Goals Against (xGA) from them is 1.01, the second-lowest figure in the division.

Only three defenders win more aerial duels per 90 minutes than Milenkovic.

Tellingly, both he and central-defensive partner Murillo rank inside the Premier League’s top five for aerial-duel success too, with each of them winning three quarters of their battles.

Top Premier League defenders for headed stats

Min. five starts

With this duo ruling their defensive domain, it has given their Forest team-mates a lot more confidence whenever their opponents are awarded an attacking set-piece.

A rejuvenated No 1

Forest showed faith in Sels this summer, retaining him as their first-choice 'keeper, despite a series of errors that cost the side goals last season.

In 2023/24, the Belgian had a save success rate of just 57.14 per cent, and according to Opta, he conceded 7.6 more goals than he was expected to.

However, backed by his head coach and reassured by the Murillo-Milenkovic axis in front of him, and told not to play as many risky, short passes, Sels has enjoyed a new lease of life.

Sels comparison

As you can see from his stats, there has been a sensational improvement – and his data now compares well with the very best in the Premier League.

Sels' important late saves v Chelsea

Opta say he has prevented xG of 3.2 with his shot-stopping brilliance across the first seven matches.

This radar chart below comparing last season (purple) with his current form (green) paints a very clear picture.

Having a goalkeeper in this kind of form makes a tremendous difference to the rest of the side and Forest are certainly seeing the benefits.

It looks as if the hard work Nuno and his staff put in during the Portuguese manager's first pre-season at the club has benefited the group enormously.

They are now a very well-drilled team, who are far more difficult to beat.

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