The Premier League title race has already taken shape.
That’s the conclusion we draw from seeing last season’s trio of leading contenders - Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool - rise so quickly into the top three.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
7 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 |
Man City
MCI
|
7 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
7 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
7 | +8 | 14 |
| 5 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
7 | +3 | 14 |
History suggests they will stay there. Last season, the top five teams in May were the same sides who had been there after seven matches, with the only change in order being Tottenham Hotspur's drop from second to fifth.
That final order is definitely subject to change. Over the last 20 seasons, only seven of the clubs who were top of the Premier League after Matchweek 7 went on to lift the trophy, although five of those occurred in the last 10 campaigns.
The only reason the retention rate is not substantially higher is that in three of the last four seasons, the eventual champions Man City have started slowly. That they are already second, one point behind the leaders, is an ominous sign for their rivals.
On the other hand, Liverpool and Arsenal both look stronger than last season, while the potential impact of Rodri’s injury suggests Man City might move backwards.
Here, Alex Keble assesses how the title race is shaping up after the first seven Matchweeks.
Liverpool: Slot’s style awaiting serious tests
Arne Slot appears to have instantly turned Liverpool into a more measured team capable of dominating possession, controlling the tempo and calmly steamrollering their opponents.
On a number of key metrics, we see their tactics have shifted away from Jurgen Klopp’s directness and moved towards a structured possession game that makes them more defensively secure.
Liverpool's Expected Goals Against (xGA), which measures how many goals a team is likely to concede in a match, has dropped from 1.20 per 90 minutes under Klopp last season to 0.72 in 2024/25.
They have also reduced the number of shots against from an average of 10.9 in 2023/24 to 9.1 this season.
Stats against Liverpool, Klopp v Slot
| Per 90 | Klopp 23/24 | Slot 24/25 |
| Expected Goals Against (xGA) | 1.20 | 0.72 |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10.9 | 9.1 |
| Progressive passes | 30.4 | 28.8 |
| Progressive carries | 14.7 | 13.1 |
| Successful take-ons | 11.2 | 6.4 |
This would appear to put Slot's side in a strong position to grind out positive results in matches that got away from them in 2023/24, potentially improving their final points tally from 82 to somewhere nearer 90.
There are certainly plenty of signs of that. Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai are working fluently together; Ibrahima Konate has stepped up a level and Mohamed Salah is in superb form.
If Liverpool retain the attacking qualities of Klopp while reining in the more self-destructive elements, then Slot could become the fifth manager to win the title in his debut Premier League season - and the first since Antonio Conte in 2016/17.
But before anyone gets carried away, there is a major caveat to consider: Liverpool’s fixture list has been very kind.
They actually earned one more point from the corresponding fixtures last season, 16 compared with 15 under Slot (excluding Ipswich Town, who were not in the division).
That stat takes some of the gloss off those five clean sheets, while also raising some concern about Liverpool’s drop-off in attacking numbers compared to 2023/24.
Their average number of shots per 90 minutes has dropped to 15.1 this season from 20.6 last season, while their Expected Goals (xG) is also lower, decreasing from 2.3 to 2.0.
Liverpool attacking stats, Klopp v Slot
| Stat per 90 | Under Klopp 23/24 | Under Slot 24/25 |
| xG | 2.3 | 2.0 |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 20.6 | 15.1 |
| Key passes | 15.7 | 13.1 |
If the attack is already more blunt, how will things go when Liverpool start facing top-half teams?
That’s one of many questions about Slot’s Liverpool that ought to be answered over the next four Premier League games, when they face Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa at Anfield, along with a trip to Arsenal.
Liverpool’s good start is just that - a good start, nothing more.
Liverpool's next five PL fixtures
Arsenal: Improvements despite shaky start
If there is any reason to doubt Arsenal will again put up a strong fight, then it is the sense Mikel Arteta’s side never make things easy.
The red card and subsequent dropped points against Brighton, going 2-0 down against Leicester City before sealing the win and Southampton taking the lead last weekend: things certainly haven’t been as calm for the Gunners as they have been for Liverpool.
And yet there is ample evidence to suggest that Arteta has upgraded the team, both in attack and defence, as he looks to improve on Arsenal’s points total for the sixth consecutive season.
Arsenal's final points and position, last five seasons
| Season | Pts | Final position |
| 2019/20 | 56 | 8th |
|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 61 | 8th |
| 2021/22 | 69 | 5th |
| 2022/23 | 84 | 2nd |
| 2023/24 | 89 | 2nd |
In defence, Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber have strengthened what was arguably Arsenal’s weakest position, left-back, while in attack, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka have all improved their output.
Havertz looks at home as a No 9, scoring in each of his last four games in all competitions, Saka’s goal involvements are at a career-high 1.43 per 90 and Martinelli seems to be back to his best after a disappointing 2023/24.
Martinelli's goal involvements, last three seasons
| Stat | 22/23 | 23/24 | 24/25* |
| Starts (subs apps) | 34 (2) | 24 (11) | 5 (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals and assists | 20 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals and assists per match | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.57 |
*After seven matches
When you also factor in the arrival of Mikel Merino, who only made his league debut off the bench last weekend, it’s clear that Arsenal look very secure and ready to beat their tally of 89 points last season.
The only real danger to their title challenge is if red cards or mid-game scares like those against Leicester and Southampton become a habit, or if a key player sustains a long-term injury.
But Arteta has created stability and a downturn feels unlikely. Arsenal should go all the way.
Arsenal's next five PL fixtures
Man City: Questions loom in Rodri's absence
We are in uncharted territory now.
Nobody had ever won four in a row until Man City did so last season, so it’s impossible to say whether five is easier than four - or whether a decline is overdue.
Add to that questions over Pep Guardiola’s future, which came to the fore again this week after Man City confirmed that director of football Txiki Begiristain is stepping down at the end of the season, and predicting Man City’s performances becomes almost impossible.
Will they rise to the challenge of possibly giving Guardiola a perfect send-off, or has Rodri’s injury revealed some structural flaws as Man City reach the end of a cycle?
One thing we can say with certainty is that City’s defence is considerably weakened at the moment.
Without Rodri screening the defence and cutting out counter-attacks at source, Guardiola’s side have had a lower xG than their opponents in three league matches.
Matches v top 10 teams when Man City had lower xG
| Match |
| Chelsea (1.01xG) 0-2 Man City (0.77xG) |
|---|
| Newcastle (1.57xG) 1-1 Man City (0.91xG) |
| Man City (1.57xG) 3-2 Fulham (2.60xG) |
Opta’s Expected Points table has Man City on 12.86 points. That is nowhere near as high as they would expect after seven matches, and 4.14 points fewer than their real total of 17 points.
All of this negativity is counterbalanced by Erling Haaland’s 10 goals in seven Premier League matches.
Haaland is fresh from a summer without international football and, according to Guardiola, he is fully fit for the first time since joining Man City. He also has a new routine of taking part in extra training sessions.
On top of that, Man City are notoriously slow starters during the first half of seasons. This wouldn’t be the first season in which City’s demise was prematurely predicted.
Still, the difference this season is Rodri’s injury. That alone gives Arsenal and Liverpool a significant boost.
Man City's next five PL fixtures
Chelsea are only outsiders with a chance
Villa and Tottenham Hotspur are already showing signs of fatigue due to their busier European schedules, so if any outsider can turn a three-horse race into four, it is Chelsea.
Not that their head coach agrees.
“I really don’t think we can compete with City or Arsenal,” said Enzo Maresca ahead of Chelsea’s 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest.
“We are not ready. The reason is City has worked with the same manager for nine years and Arsenal, five years. If you want to compete for big things, you need that time.”
That is surely a fair assessment. Chelsea’s squad has been in constant flux in recent years, and if the chaos of their big wins against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Brighton & Hove Albion - 6-2 and 4-2 respectively - are anything to go by, the team is yet to fully absorb Maresca’s tactical ideas.
Chelsea's next five PL fixtures
But we don’t need Chelsea to emerge as challengers to make this one of the most exciting title battles in years.
Liverpool’s move from Klopp to Slot has been smooth enough to assume their points tally could get into the high 80s.
Arsenal have an improved squad that should mean they can at least hit last season’s total of 89.
Man City are diminished enough by Rodri’s absence to drop below their 2023/24 total of 91.
That suggests three clubs will end the season on a similar number of points. Last season we had three in the race until early April. This time it could go all the way to the final day.
